Does China Invade the Ryukyu archipelago? (English version of the former posting)

(This is an English version of the essay posted on Sept. 6)

Does China Invade the Ryukyu archipelago?
- A Memorandum for Peace -...

Summary
The possibility of a war in Japan triggered by the Taiwan "contingency" does not envision a sudden Chinese invasion of the Nansei Islands, but rather a counterattack (or a possible preventive attack) against the U.S. and Japan in whatever form they enter the Taiwan War, which is a cause for concern.

Based on the treaties and joint statements currently in effect between Japan and China, the Taiwan War is a civil war, and Japan cannot intervene in it without abrogating these treaties and statements. The same is true for the U.S., which is currently taking the "one China" position.

If it is a civil war, there is no basis in international law for military intervention in it. The major media talks about US intervention as if it were a matter of course, but I have not seen any discussion of the legal basis for such intervention.

The ongoing conversion of the Nansei Islands into missile bases is a preparation for such illegal military intervention, and the mechanism of the "security dilemma" will raise China's alarm and encourage its military buildup.

Peace through "deterrence" is unstable and merely a postponement of war. We should recall the preamble of the UNESCO Charter, which states "since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defences of peace must be constructed". This is neither spiritualism nor idealism, but the only path to lasting peace.

1. Introduction
As I am not an expert on international politics or military issues, my comments on military tensions in East Asia will be taken no more seriously than the remarks of a TV personality on a wide-ranging TV show, but I write this as a reminder to myself - as a 'web log'. However, what follows is completely within the scope of general knowledge and common sense, and does not require any particular expertise. Rather, I would like to show that even a layperson can make this level of argument - which is even contrary to the mainstream discourse found in the mass media. This essay was inspired by the lecture given by Mr. Motofumi Asai, which I introduced in the previous post. If there are any mistakes, I would be very grateful if you could point them out in the comments section or elsewhere. (The table on the right is taken from a May 2, 2022 article in the Mainichi Newspaper.)

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